Aviation in 2020: Why I Was Bullish Before the World Changed

January 2020. The aviation industry was in the best shape of its history.

Global air passenger traffic was at an all-time high. Airlines were ordering new aircraft faster than manufacturers could build them. The pilot shortage (a structural deficit that had been growing for years) was reaching crisis levels. Training organizations were expanding. Flight schools had waiting lists.

For Aviation Infinity, the market conditions were perfect. More student pilots meant more demand for exam preparation. More flight schools meant more institutional buyers. More urgency around the pilot shortage meant more willingness to invest in training tools.

I was planning to expand: more subjects, more languages, more features, more markets. The growth trajectory was clear and the demand was real.

Two months later, the industry I was building for would experience the worst crisis in its history.

Why Aviation Was Booming

The pilot shortage was the defining force in aviation before COVID. Understanding it explains why aviation technology was such an attractive market.

Retirement wave. The generation of pilots hired during aviation's expansion in the 1980s and 1990s was reaching mandatory retirement age (65 in most jurisdictions). Thousands of experienced captains were leaving every year, creating vacancies faster than the training pipeline could fill them.

Fleet expansion. Airlines worldwide were growing: new routes, more frequencies, larger fleets. Each new aircraft required crews. The demand for pilots was growing even as the supply was shrinking.

Training bottleneck. Flight training takes 18-24 months minimum. You can't accelerate it significantly, because the flight hours, the exams, and the experience requirements have regulatory minimums. The training pipeline couldn't scale fast enough.

Regional airline feeders. Major airlines recruited from regional airlines, which recruited from flight schools. This cascading demand meant that even student pilots had career visibility. The path from training to airline cockpit was clear and short.

These structural forces made aviation education a growing market with predictable demand. Products that helped students train faster, pass exams more efficiently, and transition to careers sooner had obvious value and willing buyers.

My Expansion Plan

Based on the market conditions, my 2020 plan for Aviation Infinity was aggressive:

Subject expansion. From a few EASA subjects to all fourteen. Complete coverage of the ATPL theoretical knowledge exam.

Language expansion. The core product was English-only. European pilot students study in English but many prefer supplementary materials in their native language. Adding Italian, Spanish, and German translations of explanations would serve the largest European markets.

Mobile optimization. A dedicated mobile experience (not just responsive web) with offline capability. Students in flight schools often have limited connectivity during ground school sessions.

Institutional features. Tools for flight schools: student progress dashboards, instructor assignment, cohort management, custom question sets. The B2B play that would scale revenue beyond individual subscriptions.

The plan required investment: content creation, development time, and marketing spend. The market conditions justified the investment. The payback period looked short because demand was strong and growing.

Then the world stopped flying.

The Lesson

I wrote the expansion plan in January. By March, every assumption underlying it was invalid. Air traffic dropped 90%. Flight schools closed. Student pilots suspended training. Airlines furloughed pilots instead of hiring them.

The specific lesson wasn't "don't plan." Planning is essential. The lesson was: plans that depend on external conditions remaining stable are fragile. Plans that work under multiple scenarios hold up.

My expansion plan was optimized for a booming market. It had no contingency for a market collapse. When the collapse came, the plan was useless.

Since 2020, every plan I make includes a version for "what if the market gets worse?" Not because I expect disaster, but because having a downside plan makes me braver about pursuing the upside plan. If I know I can survive the worst case, I'm freer to pursue the best case.

The story of what happened next (aviation during COVID and how I adapted) is a different article. This one captures the moment before: the optimism, the growth plans, and the humbling reminder that markets don't move in straight lines.